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Apparently One Nation attack adds will be aimed at the Prime Minster which I personally feel is a giant waste of money and if this is One Nation’s strategy then they are going to have a disappointing results in the next couple of elections.
I assume that means they will be targeting him and his personal brand nationally or in Labor held One Nation target seats, not targetting his seat directly in Grayndler.
One Nation will be having trucks driving around in Grayndler along in McMahon and Watson.
@ SpaceFish
I suggest while they in Watson i recommend they Drive through Haldon Street, Lakemba where they will be greated with Rose Petals and Baklava.
There is a possibility that the Liberals would come fourth on primary votes. Greens voters may switch to One Nation (if they are the anti-Labor, anti-majors or protest voter type) or to Labor (if they want to rally behind the party out of disdain of One Nation).
Once Albo retires it will be game on between Labor and the Greens. It will be a hard retirement call because if Labor are on any sort of downward trajectory the greater the danger will be. Libs highly unlikely to contest a by election.
I agree thats Libs are highly unlikely to contest a by-election when Albo does retire. I think the next Labor candidiate for Graynder will have to be more Left wing than Albo. If Libs dont contest i feel these days it their vote from General election is likely to go to right wing minors and flow to Labor on preferences. The small cohort of Liberal votes are concretated in the West of the seat around Haberfield, Ashfield and Ashbury where there are more single family homes, nuclear familes and more religious voters i dont think that demographic these days will vote Greens or preference them out of spite for Labor.
Post Albanese, Grayndler can remain safe for Labor if they pick the right candidate. It feels like Grayndler is almost like a Sydney equivalent of Cooper so if they select a Ged Kearney like figure it’ll stay in their column, perhaps with a 8-10% margin.
@ Adam
I agree with your statement and i think Ged Kearney is a Gold Standard in such seats but if they choose someone like Peter Khalil or someone affilimated with the SDA who is a foreign policy hawk they can kiss this seat goodbye. I feel if they select a Ged Kearney syle candidiate over time they can rebuild the margin to what Albo currently enjoys.